COVID-19 patient satisfaction and associated factors in telemedicine and hybrid system.

Background: The quality assessment of the home-based isolation and care program (HBIC) relies heavily on patient satisfaction and length of stay. COVID-19 patients who were isolated and received HBIC were monitored through telephone consultations (TC), in-person TC visits, and a self-reporting application. By evaluating patient satisfaction and length of stay in HBIC, healthcare providers could gauge the effectiveness and efficiency of the HBIC program. Methods: A cross-sectional study design enrolled 444 HBIC patients who answered a structured questionnaire. A binary logistic regression model assessed the association between independent variables and patient satisfaction. The length of stay in HBIC was analyzed using Cox regression analysis. The data collection started on April (1-30), 2022, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Results: The median age was 34, and 247 (55.6%) were females. A greater proportion (313, 70.5%) of the participants had high satisfaction. Higher frequency of calls (>3 calls) (AOR = 2.827, 95% CI = 1.798, 4.443, p = 0.000) and those who were symptomatic (AOR = 2.001, 95% CI = 1.289, 3.106, p = 0.002) were found to be significant factors for high user satisfaction. Higher frequency of calls (>3 calls) (AHR = 0.537, 95% CI = 0.415, 0.696, p = 0.000) and more in-person visits (>1 visit) (AHR = 0.495, 95% CI = 0.322, 0.762, p = 0.001) had greater chances to reduce the length of stay in the COVID-19 HBIC. Conclusion: 70.5% of the participants had high satisfaction with the system, and frequent phone call follow-ups on patients' clinical status can significantly improve their satisfaction and length of recovery. An in-person visit is also an invaluable factor in a patient's recovery.

Determinants of Pneumothorax Among Mechanically Ventilated COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit Patients, a Single Centre Study.

Introduction: Millions of deaths and co-morbidities have been brought on by the COVID-19 epidemic worldwide. Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), multiple organ failure, and death can result from the condition in some people. The disease's course can range from a moderate upper respiratory tract infection to severe pneumonia. Numerous reports have been made on the occurrence of pneumothorax in COVID-19 ICU patients, particularly in those who are receiving invasive ventilation. This study assesses factors associated with pneumothorax among mechanically ventilated COVID-19 ICU patients in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: A case-control study design was employed from August 1, 2022, to August 31, 2022, GC, with a sample size of 281, where cases are 94 and controls are 187. A pre-tested structured quantitative tool was used to collect data on ODK and export it to SPSS version 26 for analysis. Descriptive statistics were presented using text and tables. The association between variables was analyzed with binary logistic regression. A statistical significance was declared at a p-value of 0.05 with a 95% confidence interval. Assumptions like model fitness and multicollinearity were checked to be satisfied. Results: A total of 281 (94 cases and 187 controls) patient charts were carefully reviewed. After adjustment for possible confounders in multivariate analysis, ARDS (AOR = 0.214, 95% CI (0.088, 0.519), P value =0.001) and invasive ventilation (AOR = 0.311, 95% CI (0.121, 0.796), P value =0.015) had a significant association with pneumothorax. Conclusion: Despite the introduction of preventive breathing methods, pneumothorax is still a frequent and deadly consequence in COVID-19 patients with ARDS. ARDS and invasive mechanical ventilation were found to be significantly associated with the development of pneumothorax. Health facilities should be well equipped with recent medical equipment in intensive care units and with well-trained and organized manpower.

Factors Associated with COVID-19 Severity Among Kidney Transplant and Non-Kidney Transplant Patients at St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Background: The COVID-19 epidemic is a rapidly shifting situation that has resulted in significant regulatory reforms and widespread initiatives to deal with the initial crisis and its effects. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on transplantation activities. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused various important challenges in the kidney transplant industry. Objective: To identify the factors influencing COVID-19 severity in kidney transplant and non-kidney transplant patients at St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: A comparative cross-sectional study was conducted. This study included 364 patients (182 kidney transplants and 182 non-kidney transplants). A systematic random sampling was used to select the respondents. Professional nurses collected data for this study using a data extraction tools. Data were analyzed by using SPSS version 25 software. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the association between independent variables and COVID-19 severity with adjusted odds ratio (AOR), and 95% CI for AOR and P-value for testing significance. Results: This study included 364 patients. Off the total, 34.1% developed severe COVID-19. In Multivariable logistic regression analysis, patients with 60 years and above age groups (AOR = 4.73; 95% CI: 1.86, 12.02), aged 40-59 years (AOR = 2.70; 95% CI: 1.17, 6.22), chest congestion (AOR = 4.49; 95% CI: 2.37, 8.50), history of muscle or body aches (AOR = 0.47; 95% CI: 0.22, 0.99) shortness of breath (AOR = 3.03; 95% CI: 1.36, 6.74), changed or lost sense of taste or smell (AOR = 2.77; 95% CI: 1.34, 5.71), and muscle pain (AOR = 3.05; 95% CI: 1.40, 6.65) were significant variables associated with COVID-19 severity after adjusting for other variables. Conclusion: The study revealed that 34.1% of patients had severe COVID-19. The majority of these patients underwent non-kidney transplants. Age groups and symptoms, such as chest congestion, shortness of breath, changed or lost sense of taste or smell, and muscle pain, were significant predictors of COVID-19 disease severity.

Acute Kidney Injury Among Admitted COVID-19 Patients in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Background: Although diffuse alveolar damage and respiratory failure are the most common symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019, other organ involvement, such as the kidney, has been reported. The incidence of acute kidney injury in COVID-19 patients has been reported to vary greatly. In this study, we look at the magnitude and risk factors for acute kidney injury in COVID-19 patients in Ethiopia, a developing country. Methods: A hospital-based retrospective cross-sectional study design was conducted among admitted COVID-19 patients at Eka Kotebe general hospital and Saint Peter COVID-19 treatment center by reviewing data from September 2020 to September 2021. A random sampling technique with proportional size allocation was used to select a total sample of 402 patients (225 from Eka Kotebe and 177 from St. Peter). Secondary data was collected from patient medical records using a standard, pre-tested data collection checklist using the Kobo toolbox, which was then exported to SPSS version 25.0 for analysis. The association between dependent and independent variables was analyzed using binary logistic regression. A statistical significance test was declared at a p value of <=0.05 with a 95% confidence interval. Results: A total of 402 patient charts were reviewed, and the proportion of patients with acute kidney injury was found to be 18.9%. After adjusting for potential confounders, age<=35 years (AOR = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.07-0.72), female gender (AOR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.28-0.94), and isolation type ICU (AOR = 5.11, 95% CI = 1.44-18.06) were significantly associated with acute kidney injury. Conclusion: Acute kidney injury is a common complication in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The prevalence of acute kidney injury in this study was 18.9%. Age, gender, and type of isolation were the factors that had a significant association with acute kidney injury. Clinicians and other concerned parties should provide more care to ICU patients and COVID-19 patients who are older.

Prevalence and factors associated with post-traumatic stress disorder among internally displaced people in camps at Debre Berhan, Amhara Region, Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a common mental disorder after traumatic exposure that can have long-lasting physical and mental health consequences. In 2021, Ethiopia saw the highest number of internally displaced people (IDP) due to conflict and war with the scope of the internal displacement being very high in the study area and less attention has been given to mental health. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence and associated factors of PTSD among internally displaced people in camps at Debre Berhan, Ethiopia. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted from December 1-30, 2021 among 406 IDPs, who were selected by random systematic sampling from the registration and proportionally allocated to three IDP camps in Debre Berhan. Post-traumatic stress disorder was measured by the PTSD checklist (DSM-5). Data were collected through an interviewer-administered pre-tested questionnaire, entered into EpiData version 3.1, and analyzed by Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 25. Bivariate binary logistic regression was used to select candidate variables with p < 0.25. Multicollinearity was checked by using the variance inflation factor and it was less than 10. Model adequacy was checked by Hosmer & Lemeshow goodness of test (p > 0.05). In the multivariable binary logistic regression, the association between outcome and independent variables was declared at p < 0.05 with its adjusted odds ratio (AOR) at a 95% confidence level. RESULTS: The prevalence of PTSD among the respondents was 67.5% (95% CI: 63-72). Being a merchant (AOR = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.02-0.85]), witnessing the destruction of property (AOR = 1.67 [95% CI: 1.01-2.74]), facing trauma during displacement (AOR = 6.00 [95% CI: 2.75-13.10]), frequency of displacement (AOR = 0.31 [95% CI: 0.11-0.85]), being distressed (AOR = 5.42 [95% CI: 3.25-9.05]), and unemployment (AOR = 2.09 [95% CI: 1.24-3.54]) were factors significantly associated with PTSD. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of the high prevalence of PTSD among internally displaced people. Therefore, mental health and psychosocial support are urgently required to address the identified factors and help the displaced people against long-term avoidable suffering.

Factors Associated for COVID19 Severity Among Patients Treated at Selgalu Treatment Center Assosa in Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study.

Background: Most people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus experienced mild to moderate respiratory illness and recovered without requiring special treatment. However, some became seriously ill with conditions that require medical attention and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Severity varies among individuals; this may be due to age differences and the presence of underlying disease conditions. Objective: To identify factors associated with disease severity among COVID19 patients treated at Selgalu treatment center from November 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021. Methods: A case-control study was implemented among patients admitted to Selgalu COVID19 treatment center in October 2021. A 210 (70 severe disease and 140 non-severe diseases), cases (disease severity), and controls (non-severe disease). Data entered to Epi data 4.6, exported to SPSS 25. A Chi-square test with a p-value of <0.05 was used as a statistically significant difference between characteristics of disease severity and non-severity of disease. Multivariable binary logistic regression was used to determine variables associated with disease severity based on an adjusted odds ratio with 95% CI and p-value < 0.05. Results: 210 (70 cases and 140 controls) selected charts in this study. Patients age category between 40-59 [AOR: 5.30 (2.27-12.34)], aged 60 or older [AOR: 3.85 (1.39-10.64)], patients with fever [AOR: 3.98 (1.59-9.96)], fatigue [AOR: 3.14 (1.50-6.54)], and hypertensive patients [AOR: 3.68 (1.53-8.82)] were significantly predictors for COVID19 disease severity after adjusting for other variables. Conclusion: From this study, we conclude that being age 60 or older and 40-59 age groups, having symptoms of fever, fatigue, and underlying comorbid illness hypertension. Were identified a significant predictor of severe COVID-19 disease; despite our limitation of study data highlights the important factors associated with disease severity with covid19 admitted to Selgalu treatment center.

Barriers to cleaning of shared latrines in slums of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Shared latrines and other shared sanitation facilities are vital for communities that lack private latrines. However, the cleanliness of shared latrines continues to be a problem in sub-Saharan Africa, including slums of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Investigating the barriers to cleaning of shared latrines may inform the future strengthening of comprehensive sanitation programs in slums of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Thus, a community-based unmatched case-control study was conducted among 100 case and 200 control households that were users of shared latrines from September to November 2017 in a slum district in Addis Ababa. Cases were those who had not cleaned their shared latrines and controls were those who had cleaned their shared latrines at least once during the week prior to data collection. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and an on-the-spot-observational checklist and analyzed using bivariate (crude odds ratio [COD]) and multivariable (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]) unconditional logistic regression model. Variables having a p-value of less than 0.25 from the bivariate logistic regression analysis were retained into multivariable analysis. From the multivariable analysis, variables with p<0.05 were declared as factors significantly associated with barriers to cleaning of shared latrines. We found that about half 99 (49.5%) of shared latrines used by cases and almost one-third 32 (32.0%) of the shared latrines used by controls had visible cracks and spaces in the floor and slabs. The barriers to cleaning of shared latrines were found to be monthly household income of less than $55.60 USD (AOR = 1.80; 95%CI: 1.2-3.10), users feeling a lack of privacy during latrine use (AOR = 2.95; 95% CI: 1.60-5.43), no locking latch on the latrine door (AOR = 4.60; 95% CI: 2.43-8.79), inadequate ventilation of latrine (AOR: 4.88; 95% CI: 2.44-9.63), lack of regular monitoring of latrine by health extension workers (AOR = 2.86; 95%CI: 1.32-6.21) and a lack of enough water at home for cleaning the latrine (AOR = 4.91; 95% CI: 1.07-9.48). This study found several barriers to cleaning of shared latrines in slums of Addis Ababa. We recommend that stakeholders promote cleaning of shared latrines by designing programs to improve latrine privacy by adding or modifying the superstructure and including a door with locking latch, to make adjustments to the structure for better ventilation, to ensure regular monitoring of latrines by health extension workers and to make enough water consistently available for regular latrine cleaning.

Geographical variations and associated factors of defaulting from immunization among children aged 12 to 23 months in Ethiopia: using spatial and multilevel analysis of 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia, despite the considerable improvement in immunization coverage, the burden of defaulting from immunization among children is still high with marked variation among regions. However, the geographical variation and contextual factors of defaulting from immunization were poorly understood. Hence, this study aimed to identify the spatial pattern and associated factors of defaulting from immunization. METHODS: An in-depth analysis of the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS 2016) data was used. A total of 1638 children nested in 552 enumeration areas (EAs) were included in the analysis. Global Moran's I statistic and Bernoulli purely spatial scan statistics were employed to identify geographical patterns and detect spatial clusters of defaulting immunization, respectively. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with defaulting immunization. A p value < 0.05 was used to identify significantly associated factors with defaulting of child immunization. RESULTS: A spatial heterogeneity of defaulting from immunization was observed (Global Moran's I = 0.386379, p value < 0.001), and four significant SaTScan clusters of areas with high defaulting from immunization were detected. The most likely primary SaTScan cluster was seen in the Somali region, and secondary clusters were detected in (Afar, South Nation Nationality of people (SNNP), Oromiya, Amhara, and Gambella) regions. In the final model of the multilevel analysis, individual and community level factors accounted for 56.4% of the variance in the odds of defaulting immunization. Children from mothers who had no formal education (AOR = 4.23; 95% CI: 117, 15.78), and children living in Afar, Oromiya, Somali, SNNP, Gambella, and Harari regions had higher odds of having defaulted immunization from community level. CONCLUSIONS: A clustered pattern of areas with high default of immunization was observed in Ethiopia. Both the individual and community-level characteristics were statistically significant factors of defaulting immunization. Therefore, the Federal Ethiopian Ministry of Health should prioritize the areas with defaulting of immunization and consider the identified factors for immunization interventions.

Risk of COVID-19 Infection and Associated Factors Among Healthcare Workers: A Cross-Sectional Study at Eka Kotebe Treatment Center in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare worker-associated COVID-19 infection is a worldwide problem. The magnitude of exposure risk to COVID-19 infections in Ethiopia is rapidly increasing following its spread in the country. However, studies about the risk of COVID-19 infection among healthcare workers and factors associated with risk of COVID-19 infection are lacking in Ethiopia. OBJECTIVE: The study investigated level of risk of COVID-19 infection and associated factors among healthcare workers at Eka Kotebe COVID-19 treatment center. METHODS: A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted from September to October 2020 to determine risk of COVID-19 infection and associated factors at Eka Kotebe COVID-19 treatment center. In total, 318 healthcare workers participated in the study. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 25. A binary logistic regression model was used to evaluate the risk of COVID-19 infection among healthcare workers. RESULTS: A total of 243 (76%) healthcare workers had a high exposure risk of COVID-19 infection. Department of healthcare workers, ICU department workers [AOR: 6.545, 95% CI; (1.79-23.97)], long working hours [AOR: 9.224, 95% CI; (2.00-42.61)], inadequate supply of PPE [AOR: 0.318, 95% CI; (0.14-0.75)], lack of access to alcohol-based hand rub [AOR: 0.093, 95% CI; (0.01-0.98)], providing care within one meter of COVID-19 patients [AOR: 20.633, 95% CI; (3.88-109.76)], and direct contact with an environment in which a COVID-19 patient received care [AOR: 9.600, 95% CI; (1.05-84.50)] were found to be risk factors for COVID-19 infection. CONCLUSION: Healthcare workers face a high risk of COVID-19 infection while providing care for COVID-19 patients. Proper use and adequate supply of PPE and the implementation of basic infection prevention and control with frequent protocol revision and strict supervision are crucial to limit exposure risk to COVID-19 among healthcare workers.

Individual and community level factors with a significant role in determining child height-for-age Z score in East Gojjam Zone, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia: a multilevel analysis.

BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia, child undernutrition remains to be a major public health challenge and a contributing factor for child mortality and morbidity. To reduce the problem, it is apparent to identify determinants of child undernutrition in specific contexts to deliver appropriately, targeted, effective and sustainable interventions. METHODS: An agroecosystem linked cross-sectional survey was conducted in 3108 children aged 6-59 months. Multistage cluster sampling technique was used to select study participants. Data were collected on socio-demographic characteristics, child anthropometry and on potential immediate, underlying and basic individual and community level determinants of child undernutrition using the UNICEF conceptual framework. Analysis was done using STATA 13 after checking for basic assumptions of linear regression. Important variables were selected and individual and community level determinants of child height-for-age Z score were identified. P values less than 0.05 were considered the statistical level of significance. RESULTS: In the intercept only model and full models, 3.8% (p < 0.001) and 1.4% (p < 0.001) of the variability were due to cluster level variability. From individual level factors, child age in months, child sex, number of under five children, immunization status, breast feeding initiation time, mother nutritional status, diarrheal morbidity, household level water treatment and household dietary diversity were significant determinants of child height for age Z score. Also from community level determinants, agroecosystem type, liquid waste disposal practice and latrine utilization were significantly associated with child height-for-age Z score. CONCLUSION: In this study, a statistical significant heterogeneity of child height-for-age Z score was observed among clusters even after controlling for potential confounders. Both individual and community level factors, including the agroecosystem characteristics had a significant role in determining child height-for-age Z score in the study area. In addition to the existing efforts at the individual levels to improve child nutritional status, agroecosystem and community WASH related interventions should get more attention to improve child nutritional status in the study area.

Non random distribution of child undernutrition in Ethiopia: spatial analysis from the 2011 Ethiopia demographic and health survey.

BACKGROUND: Child undernutrition showed geographical inequalities due to variations in contextual determinants from area to area which indicates that location is an important factor in child undernutrition. However, there are limited studies on spatial epidemiology of child undernutrition in Ethiopia. This study was aimed to identify the SaTScan spatial clusters of child undernutrition in Ethiopia. METHODS: Nutritional indices of children (0-59 months) with Global Positioning System (GPS) location data were accessed from the 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) after getting permission from the MEASURES Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) Program. The Bernoulli Model was fitted using SaTScan™ software, version 9.4. for SaTScan cluster analysis. Log Likelihood Ratio (LLR) test was used for each SaTScan cluster and size of the scanning SaTScan cluster to test the alternative hypothesis that there is an elevated risk within the SaTScan cluster compared to outside the SaTScan cluster. Less than 0.05 for LLR was considered as statistically significant level. RESULTS: The SaTScan spatial analysis result detected Liben, Afder and Borena administrative zones around the South East Ethiopia as the most likely primary spatial SaTScan clusters (LLR = 28.98, p < 0.001) for wasting. In the Northern, Middle, North East and North West areas of Ethiopia particularly from all administrative zones of Amhara, Tigray, Afar, Ben. Gumz regional states and East Welega and North Showa zones from Oromiya Regional State (LLR = 60.27, p < 0.0001) were detected as the most likely primary SaTScan clusters for child underweight. Also in the Northern, Middle, North East and North West areas of all administrative zones of Tigray, Amhara, Ben. Gumz and Afar regional states and West and North Showa and East Welega from Oromiya Regional States (LLR = 97.28, P < 0.0001) were primary SaTScan clusters for child stunting. CONCLUSION: The study showed geographical variability of child stunting, underweight and wasting in the Country which demands risk based local nutritional interventions. Further study will be important to assess the temporal nature of the problem and to identify community level factors that create this spatial variation.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland. INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.